{
  "about": "Ben Charney builds systems, pays attention to incentives, and tries to turn personal judgment into testable, durable artifacts.",
  "mission": "Build practical systems that improve decision-making, preserve context, and make my worldview more legible and testable over time.",
  "telos": [
    "TELOS is my personal framework for tracking purpose and direction in life.",
    "It keeps missions, goals, beliefs, challenges, narratives, wisdom, and predictions in plain markdown.",
    "The point is to keep the important parts of my operating system human-readable, searchable, and easy to update."
  ],
  "preferences": [
    "Working style: plain text, structured markdown, and clean feedback loops",
    "Interface style: minimal, fast, and understandable",
    "Analysis style: evidence-first, no fluff"
  ],
  "predictions": [
    "Governments regulate AI and tax corporate usage relative to human employment (Probable; made 2026-06-12; resolves 2030)",
    "AI replaces most customer service-like workflows within companies (Probable; made 2026-06-20; resolves 2028)",
    "China will surpass the US and sustain global dominance for centuries (Probable; made 2026-06-03; resolves Ongoing)",
    "Crypto (ETH, BTC, stablecoins) becomes a dominant global asset class (Probable; made 2026-06-12; resolves 2030)",
    "UBI becomes necessary / implemented in developed nations (Almost Certain; made 2026-06-12; resolves 2030)"
  ],
  "projects": {
    "technical": [
      "Public daemon source and predictions mirror",
      "Personal systems for context and decision-making"
    ],
    "creative": [],
    "personal": []
  },
  "last_updated": "2026-07-02",
  "sync_status": {
    "daemon_md": "mirrors public daemon.md"
  },
  "tool_count": 0,
  "predictions_detail": [
    {
      "slug": "ai-regulation-labor-tax",
      "statement": "Governments regulate AI and tax corporate usage relative to human employment",
      "category": "policy",
      "confidence": "Probable",
      "probability": 0.7,
      "made": "2026-06-12",
      "resolve_by": "2030-12-31",
      "status": "active",
      "resolution": null,
      "resolved_at": null,
      "criteria": "Resolves YES if by end of 2030 at least one G7 nation has passed legislation that explicitly ties corporate tax liability, robot/AI usage fees, or similar levies to automation-driven headcount reduction (e.g., an \"automation tax\" or equivalent).",
      "tags": [
        "policy",
        "ai",
        "taxation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "ai-replaces-customer-service",
      "statement": "AI replaces most customer service-like workflows within companies",
      "category": "technology",
      "confidence": "Probable",
      "probability": 0.7,
      "made": "2026-06-20",
      "resolve_by": "2028-12-31",
      "status": "active",
      "resolution": null,
      "resolved_at": null,
      "criteria": "Resolves YES if by end of 2028, industry surveys (e.g. Gartner, McKinsey) report that a majority (50%+) of customer service interactions at large enterprises (Fortune 500-scale) are handled primarily by AI systems without human escalation on first contact.",
      "tags": [
        "technology",
        "ai",
        "labor"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "china-global-dominance",
      "statement": "China will surpass the US and sustain global dominance for centuries",
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "confidence": "Probable",
      "probability": 0.7,
      "made": "2026-06-03",
      "resolve_by": null,
      "status": "active",
      "resolution": null,
      "resolved_at": null,
      "criteria": "No single resolution date; tracked directionally. Leans \"correct\" if, by 2050, China leads the US on GDP (PPP), is the dominant trade partner for a majority of G20 nations, and holds regional military parity or superiority for 10+ consecutive years. Leans \"wrong\" if the US or another power (e.g. India) demonstrably retakes and holds global economic/military primacy before then.",
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "china",
        "long-run"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "crypto-dominant-asset-class",
      "statement": "Crypto (ETH, BTC, stablecoins) becomes a dominant global asset class",
      "category": "finance",
      "confidence": "Probable",
      "probability": 0.7,
      "made": "2026-06-12",
      "resolve_by": "2030-12-31",
      "status": "active",
      "resolution": null,
      "resolved_at": null,
      "criteria": "Resolves YES if by end of 2030 crypto assets (BTC, ETH, major stablecoins) represent a top-5 asset class by global market cap alongside equities, bonds, real estate, and gold, AND stablecoins are used as a mainstream settlement rail by at least one G20 central bank or major payment network.",
      "tags": [
        "finance",
        "crypto"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "ubi-implemented",
      "statement": "UBI becomes necessary / implemented in developed nations",
      "category": "economics",
      "confidence": "Almost Certain",
      "probability": 0.9,
      "made": "2026-06-12",
      "resolve_by": "2030-12-31",
      "status": "active",
      "resolution": null,
      "resolved_at": null,
      "criteria": "Resolves YES if by end of 2030 at least one G7 nation has enacted a national or large-region (state/province-level) universal basic income program, OR the policy consensus among G7 finance ministries has explicitly shifted to treat UBI as necessary in response to AI-driven labor displacement (per official government publications or budget proposals).",
      "tags": [
        "economics",
        "ubi",
        "ai-labor"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "calibration": {
    "resolved_count": 0,
    "brier_score": null,
    "buckets": {}
  },
  "beliefs": [
    "Truth matters more than comfort",
    "Consistency beats intensity",
    "Freedom is worth protecting",
    "Systems should serve life, not consume it",
    "Leverage comes from compounding good decisions"
  ],
  "wisdom": [
    {
      "section": "Selection",
      "items": [
        "Popularity is not fit",
        "The right foundation matters more than the longest feature list",
        "Avoid tools that are hard to operate, inspect, or steer",
        "Prefer future flexibility over lock-in"
      ]
    },
    {
      "section": "Building",
      "items": [
        "Plumbing kills momentum",
        "Prefer adapting a strong base first",
        "Boring and maintainable beats clever and fragile",
        "Good boundaries, explicit contracts, and modular structure matter"
      ]
    },
    {
      "section": "Autonomy and Trust",
      "items": [
        "Controlled autonomy beats black-box autonomy",
        "Specialized agents only matter when scope, rules, and outputs are clear",
        "Visual inspectability is operationally important",
        "If it cannot be reviewed easily, trust drops"
      ]
    },
    {
      "section": "Working Style",
      "items": [
        "The real bottleneck is usually direction and execution, not ideas",
        "Narrow, structure, validate",
        "Small useful wins beat large speculative builds",
        "Manual-first, then structured automation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "section": "AI Behavior",
      "items": [
        "AI should clarify, compare, critique, and structure",
        "Expose tradeoffs and assumptions",
        "Reduce ambiguity without removing control",
        "The goal is reliable leverage"
      ]
    },
    {
      "section": "Reminders",
      "items": [
        "Avoid slop",
        "Avoid hidden complexity",
        "Avoid fragile glue",
        "Prefer realism, inspectability, maintainability, and usefulness"
      ]
    }
  ]
}